Afghanistan's torturous politics

Afghanistan's torturous politics

Achieving stability, undermining the Taliban and restoring public credibility to the Afghan government is going to be America’s toughest challenge in the war-torn country.

The new cabinet of Hamid Karzai, Afghanistan’s president, falls short of the huge expectations of the West and the Afghan people. They were expecting a major change, a strong signal that business will be conducted in a radically different way. But that is unlikely to happen today.

Karzai’s recent picks for the much anticipated cabinet was less than meets the eye for many. The prominent ministers of interior, defence and the head of national intelligence will all remain in office if approved by the parliament. Eleven new candidates join the cabinet, most of them affiliated with the country’s feared warlords who have dominated politics in the country for decades.

Increasingly isolated by the international community, which wants him to end the pervasive culture of graft, impunity, violation of laws, a recalcitrant Karzai seems to be gravitating toward a risky strategy, satisfying some of his critics’ demands without abandoning his allies.

Hopes unachieved

When I first came to Afghanistan a month after the Taliban were toppled, there were high expectations the country may put an end to decades of bloodshed and chaos. To do that a new political system has had to be established based on competent governance, transparency and the rule of law.

Nine years later, none of those hopes have been achieved and a somber pessimism prevails in the capital.

The warlords have gained more powers, Karzai failed to commit to the promises he sold to his own people, and the Taliban are establishing shadow governments in more than half of the country with an efficient judiciary system, and rare zero-tolerance on corruption.

The Americans who are desperate to clean up the mess in this country and leave by the end of 2011, worry that public support is drifting toward the Taliban, a shift that could deal a blow to Obama’s new strategy.

What should Karzai do to win the hearts and minds of his own people? The answer is simple. Many say action is what is required and not words. Karzai’s rivals complain that action has been in short supply over the last nine years, and that the president’s only credit is temporizing.

Obviously, Karzai is concerned. The US is pushing him to upset a traditional political order that is so entrenched in the society. But to dismantle that order, he has to alienate the warlords.

Powerbrokers

Ironically, it was the Americans who first enlisted warlords to topple the Taliban. They were subsequently given senior positions in the government, and they used their powers to reap huge profits through shoddy businesses.

Aware of the negative perception people hold against them, though, most of the country’s warlords are carefully reinventing themselves by acting as powerbrokers. This is exactly what they did during the last election. General Dostum, Khalili, Mohaqiq, General Fahim and Ismael Khan, respectively representing the Uzbek, the Hazara and the Tajik ethnicities, all backed Karzai’s reelection.

Now they are likely to ask him to return the favour. This is the reason why many fear he will be besieged by these people for the rest of his tenure.

But the mercurial Karzai is a master vacillator.

In 2004 for example, he cast off General Fahim, who was interim vice president and minister of defence, to appease the Americans, who wanted the warlords gone. Five years later, when he sensed the Obama administration distancing itself from him, he changed tack and picked Fahim as vice president on his ticket.

Although he vowed during his inauguration to clamp down on corruption, he keeps claiming graft is inflicted from abroad. When the mayor of Kabul was recently charged with corruption, an angry Karzai told an anti-corruption gathering:

"One very serious caution I want to say. The mayor of Kabul has been sentenced to four years jail. I know the mayor. He is a clean person. I know him."

What will Karzai do - take action or stonewall?

The international donors won’t tolerate further delays. But if he acts, decisions have to made and corrupt ministers and warlords have to be tried or fired. It remains to be seen if he is ready for such move.