Yemen: Ceasefire imminent?

Yemen: Ceasefire imminent?

A deal between Yemen and the country's Houthi fighters is in the offing, according to senior officials here in the capital Sanaa.

Major obstacles have been overcome, and an envoy is now meeting with Abdel Malik, the rebellion leader, to put the final touches on the agreement.

What happens next?

As soon as the deal is announced, a ceasefire will come into effect and the tough work will start. The Houthis should open main roads and checkpoints, abandon mountains they have occupied for months, return weapons captured from the army and free Saudi and Yemeni soldiers.

In exchange, the government will allow internally displaced people (IDPs) to return home and rebuild destroyed areas and villages.

But the scars of a war that has been on and off for six years won’t heal easily. Thousands were killed or forced to leave their villages. People fear retaliations and tribal vendettas may set off a chain reaction across the north of the country.

Future of the Houthis

The deal's terms don’t reveal much about what kind of role the Houthis will have in the future.

The government, though, has rejected calls for greater autonomy for the Houthis in their areas. The only acceptable move, the government says, is for the rebels to join a recognised political party and "operate within the framework of the constitution".

Although the Houthis have so far refrained from spelling out their plan for the future, sources close to the rebellion tell Al Jazeera that Abdel Malik al-Houthi is not in a position of weakness and that "he is definitely going to fight for more rights for his own people".

An editorial in 26 September, a state-run weekly newspaper, hails the imminent deal as a major victory for the state and warns the rebels that:

"Those who ignited fitna (a term that refers to chaos and civil war, punishable to death according to Islamic law) and caused six wars, which have resulted in destruction and blood shedding, have achieved nothing but illusions, plunging themselves in the abyss of rebellion. Now they must stop."

Saudi-Iranian Influence

Any deal with the Houthis should definitely take into account concerns voiced by Saudi Arabia, which launched a military campaign against the rebels. The kingdom accused the Houthis of occupying strategic positions on top of a mountain on the Saudi border.

Withdrawing from this mountain and avoiding all military contact with the kingdom in the future are a prerequisite for Riyadh to stop its offensive.

Almost every day, the Houthis post videos of what they say are Saudi airstrikes on their villages in Saada province.

The Saudi-Yemeni crackdown against the Houthis drew Iran close to the conflict. Tehran has on many occasions condemned Sanaa and Riyadh for "killing innocents in Saada", sparking fears of a regional military confrontation.

Saudi Arabia, the most powerful Sunni country in the region, views Iran’s policies in the Middle East with suspicion. The kingdom, along with many Gulf countries, worry Iran is seeking to spread the Shia ideology and emboldening Shia minorities in the region.

A ceasefire is likely to calm those tensions for the time being.

President Salih’s tack

Besieged by a secessionist movement in the south, a growing al-Qaeda presence, poverty and public frustration with a pervasive graft culture, President Salih’s sway has been severely undermined.

Left with only a few options, a deal with the Houthis will give him time to tackle other issues.

But even if the ceasefire is a major breakthrough, Yemen’s other challenges will remain. Unless radical solutions are found, the international community fear Yemen may become a failed state.

-- Hashem Ahelbarra, Sanaa