A day of 'political poker'

A day of 'political poker'

1245 GMT Gordon Brown strode out of Downing Streeting - his speech in hand.

The first indication of what was coming was he was alone. If he was about to quit, his wife Sarah would have been by his side.

He made it clear the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats could, and should, discuss a coalition, but the message was clear.

If it falls apart, then I'm free to chat. This is political poker.

Brown is essentially saying: "David have a go if you think you can form a government but I don't think you can. And if you lose, I get to go".

As he walked back in, I felt he was almost tempted to answer the questions we journalists shouted at him.

Instead he went in and the door closed. He's staying there for now.

Cameron now has a big speech to make. He has to sound like a statesman and not someone who has had his ball stolen. This is quite a day.

1100 GMT There's not a lot Gordon Brown can do at the moment – not even sleep. We're all camped out on his doorstep hoping for a word or a sighting. So far, nothing except his written statement.

He really has to wait to see how the cards fall elsewhere before he can decide on his next step.

Nick Clegg has handed the initiative to David Cameron who will speak in just over two hours time. Is there anyone really expecting him not to say he will push on and try to form a government.

Brown keeps talking about "strong and stable government". A minority Conservative administration would have to work hard to be that.

I'm told that the prime minister will speak to Nick Clegg when all the results are in.

That will be after David Cameron makes his announcement – which will dictate the next turn in this process.

Incidentally, there are those who say the politicians should take the weekend off and come back on Monday. Two reasons for that - the money markets and just the sheer impracticality of letting this process drag on any longer than necessary.

1000 GMT Two interesting developments in the past hour. Gordon Brown issues a written statement which says the UK's top civil servant will facilitate talks to create a stable government.

This suggests he's ready to talk with the Liberal Democrats. Everyone here on Downing Street rushed to grab the statement and then get it on air.

Then a short distance away, the Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg suggested that the Conservatives, as the largest party, should be given the chance to form a government.

That doesn't rule out a Lib Lab pact. David Cameron may try to enlist the support of the Democratic Unionists from Northern Ireland.

But if he gets involved in talks with Clegg, the differences in basic positions make a deal difficult.

So there's no reason why if Conservative and Liberal Democrat talks break down (if there are any) that Clegg can't walk across the street and negotiate with Brown and claim he did his best with the largest party. And politicians are always looking for cover.

0800 GMT Downing Street is packed - Gordon Brown we're told is sleeping and the journalists are gathered in small groups huddled against the cold wind whistling through here and discussing what will happen next.

The technicians are wiring up speakers and testing lights which suggest Brown will speak at some point soon - but will it be a resignation or a "we fight on" speech?

Of all three leaders, he must be happiest. David Cameron had a 20 point lead last year against the most unpopular prime minister in history and still couldn't convince the voters he was the future.

Nick Clegg's campaign ran out of air, squeezed by the same "old two parties".

Brown was facing a wipeout we were told, possible third place. Yet despite a poor showing, it wasn't as bad as predicted.

His two options are clear. Quit for the sake of the party, let the Conservatives make the cuts needed and hope Labour comes back better and stronger at the next election.

Or he can try to form a government with the Liberal Democrats, arguing that such an arrangement is valid as it encompasses more who voted against the Convservatives in terms of the share of the popular vote than actually backed them.