On the face of it, political divisions among southern Sudanese are getting deeper, which suits the North just fine, for now.
As if the ever increasing tribal clashes in the south were not enough, political divisions among southern Sudanese are getting deeper by the day.
These divisions seem to pitch several small political formations, mainly reflecting tribal and ethnic entities in the south against the main political and military force, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement, SPLM.
Eight South Sudanese parties opposed to the SPLM, which rules the south and co-rules the whole of Sudan along with the National Congress Party (NCP), have met in Khartoum to discuss problems in southern Sudan as well as issues related to the implementation of the 2005 North-South Peace agreement.
These southern parties believe that the SPLM has squandered the opportunity of the peace agreement to build the south. Some of them call for Sudan's national unity to be preserved and are against the independence of the south.
Under the title "south-south dialogue", these meetings are taking place against the backdrop of continued tribal violence in the south, and ever deepening divisions within the southern political class as next April's elections get closer.
The South is required to speak with a united voice now, to select their candidates for the presidential race. But the reality on the ground is rather grim. They are divided among themselves more than ever before.
And the two peace and government partners, SPLM and NCP, are at loggerheads as well, with each side accusing the other of hampering the implementation of the peace agreement.
The conference has seen some very strong statements accusing the SPLM of mismanagement in the south.
Former Sudanese foreign minister Lam Akol, now chairman of an SPLM splinter group, accused the SPLM of cracking down on opposition parties in the South, including his SPLM-DC party, adding that the referendum process “requires good government”.
Sudanese presidential adviser Bona Malwal went further, saying that southerners “should free themselves politically, economically and security-wise from SPLM rule”.
This conference looks like an anti-SPLM revolt. To what extent can these parties overthrow SPLM's political domination in the south ahead of the elections? How much weight and clout do they have? Are they real or sham formations sponsored and exploited by the northern government in Khartoum?
The SPLM accuses the NCP of plotting the above mentioned scenarios of political and tribal conflict in the south. But while there is no doubt the majority-Arab North has some stake in what's going on, it's difficult to prove there's a northern hand in the political wrangling between the southerners, or in the tribal fighting in the South.
The North's take on the whole issue is that the SPLM's leadership is corrupt - they've embezzled the oil money and foreign donations destined for reconstruction.
Their own people are disgruntled. The small southern parties are marginalised and feel it's their right and their opportunity to step in, taking advantage of the SPLM's fall from public favour in the South.
If they can topple the SPLM as the main de-facto representative of the southerners' national aspirations, they won't hesitate to do it.
But the whole situation stokes fears of South Sudan becoming too unstable for any election and eventually for any referendum on self-rule to take place.
