Last roll of the dice?

Last roll of the dice?

The last roll of the dice? That's the assessment by one security expert of Thursday's announcement by Madagascar's deposed president Marc Ravalomanana that he plans to leave exile in South Africa and return home on Saturday.

Thomas Wilson, senior Africa analyst at Control Risks, told the Reuters news agency it was the last move of a desperate man. Wilson predicts the plane won't even take off.

Ravalomanana is sure it will, demonstrating his certainty by waving a clutch of commercial airline tickets.

"I wish to inform all who are watching and listening to me today, both in South Africa and Madagascar and the rest of the world, I will return home on the day after tomorrow, on Saturday, February 19th," he told reporters gathered for the big moment in a plush Johannesburg office park.

 "I will be returning to our beloved country. These are our tickets."

But there is surely something Ravalomanana cannot be certain of.

On his return, (he's due to land at 11am local time, we're told, and there are still seats available for anyone wishing to come along), he faces the prospect of immediate arrest by what he describes as the "illegal regime" of former disc jockey Andry Rajoelina.

Rajoelina led the uprising against him and is now the Indian Ocean island's internationally-unrecognised president.

A trial, allegedly constituted by Rajoelina, convicted Ravalomanana in absentia of abuse of office last year, sentencing him to life in prison.

Ravalomanana dodged the question repeatedly posed by reporters: wasn't he afraid of arrest? 

"I am not afraid to return to Madagascar. I have done my country no harm," he said.

Some would argue otherwise. At least 25 Malagasy protesters died when Ravalomanana's presidential guard opened fire as they marched on his palace in February 2009.

Others believe the self-made millionaire, who started life as a street salesman pedalling yoghurt, is only interested in self-enrichment.

Ravalomanana proclaims himself a patriot and a democrat, the man who holds the keys to unlock many months of political crisis in the world's largest vanilla producer.

As far as I can tell, either he's struck an unlikely deal with Rajoelina that he's not telling anyone about, or Ravalomanana is a desperate fool.

Or, perhaps, that plane won’t take off after all.