Samba time? Rio 2016

Samba time? Rio 2016

One month away. That is about how far out we are until October 2, when the IOC will announce which city will host the 2016 Summer Olympics. The final four candidates: Rio de Janeiro, Tokyo, Madrid and Chicago.

A year, even six months ago, Rio was a long shot. Today, it appears the 2016 Games are Rio's to lose. This news seems to verify that. The first ever Summer Games in South America could be on the horizon. I always thought Rio stood a good chance if the city played their deck of cards correctly. It appears they have - going from dark horse to show horse. Here is how it has happened, in my opinion:

The Economy: It's all about dollars and cents. Either a candidate city/country has the money to spend on the Games, or it doesn't. In that regard, the surging Brazilian economy is helping Rio's chances.

I heard Brazil's finance minister last year at a conference say something to the effect of, "If we can come out of this global financial crisis in good shape, like I think we will, Brazil will have arrived." Guess what? Brazil has arrived. By all accounts Brazil has fought off the global crisis and come out fairly unscathed. Despite some bumps here and there, the economy can still be classified as "booming".

So the country has been in the fortunate position of having the luxury - yes, it's a luxury -  to invest heavily in the Rio bid. If Brazil's economy had collapsed in the past year (like it might have 15 years ago), I could not imagine the IOC would be considering Rio as a top contender. Team Rio 2016 has put together a remarkable package showcasing the city, with the full backing of President Lula.

If Rio is awarded the Games, there will be many factors that contributed (including the fact the country is hosting the 2014 World Cup). But at the root of it all will be the economy, the economy, and more of the economy which allowed Brazil to invest in the Games. By awarding the games to Rio, the IOC would basically be saying: "This country has an economy we believe in. For the long term."

THE OTHERS

Chicago: A city within a country that is in a terrible economic mess. How can a city make a serious bid for the Games with a straight face when they are laying off city workers due to budget woes? All the reasons the IOC might pick Rio are perhaps all the reasons the IOC will not pick Chicago.

I know, in 2016 the economic outlook in the United States will look much different than it does today. But the fact of the matter is selection time is now. I also suspect President Barack Obama is too occupied with bigger issues on the home front to put much effort into lobbying for Chicago's bid.

Madrid: Weren't the Olympics just in Spain a few years ago? It sure feels like it anyway.

Tokyo: I suspect hurting Tokyo's chances is the fact the last Games were in neighboring China.

I will be in Rio on October 2 covering the decision. I don't have any inside, secret information. But I suspect the headlines around the world on October 3 will be something like this: "Samba Time! Rio Awarded 2016 Olympics."