Fighter jets and political posturing

Fighter jets and political posturing

The Brazilian government - at least the diplomatic corps - is probably livid at Colombia right about now. 

Why? Before I answer that, a brief history: Colombia and the United States are negotiating a deal that would allow the American military to establish a presence inside as many as a half dozen or more Colombian military bases. They say it would be anti-narcotic operations. It doesn't come as a huge surprise. Colombia is the Unites States closest ally in the region. And the U.S. has been looking for a new home for their anti-narcotics military operations after Ecuador refused to renew the lease the Americans used at Manta, Ecuador. 

Enter Colombia: a country that gladly opened its doors to the gringos. But it's caused a controversy in Latin America, as most regional leaders voiced concern or downright opposition to the idea of the U.S. setting up a large military presence in the region. If you want more details on this entire ordeal, and the controversy behind it, just type the words "Colombia U.S. bases controversy" in a search engine and you'll pull up more than you ever wanted to know about it.

So that is the short history. Now why is Brazil upset with Colombia? Brazil is considered the regional diplomatic powerhouse. It's a country that diplomatically often acts as an intermediary and calming voice in times of overheated rhetoric in the region. Brazil followed that policy when it came to the bases controversy. Brazil, unlike almost every other country in the region, didn't take sides. Brazil voiced concern, but also gave Colombia the benefit of the doubt when very few other countries in the region were ready to do so.

Likely no more. That's because in a meeting of the Union of South American Nations (UNASUL) in Quito, Ecuador about a week ago, the hot topic was the U.S. bases deal in Colombia. And the Colombian delegation basically told Brazil: "If you want to question us about our military relationship with the U.S., we first want an explanation of all the new fighter jets you are buying!" 

This infuriated the Brazilians. First, Brazil feels that is no way to treat a "mediator". And second, while it's true Brazil is on the cusp of signing a deal to buy new fighter jets, they say it has absolutely nothing to do with Colombia. It's a 100% separate issue, they argue. 

It's true the fighter jet deal has been in the works for over 8 years now, and most non-partisan analysts will tell you it's a logical and much-needed upgrade to Brazil's Air Force. Nobody really believes the fighter jets have anything to do with the bases situation in Colombia. It appears Colombia was just trying to make a point: "Put your nose in our business, we'll put our nose in your business and see how you like it." 

Either way, the Brazilians left the Quito meeting furious. And it's likely that President Lula will be more outspoken in the coming days and weeks. He already has been, somewhat, just look at this AP story. Lula doesn't speak directly about Colombia, but after knowing this history you can now begin to read between the lines and connect the dots on what's going on.

Speaking of those Brazilian fighter jets...  

While on the subject of those 36 new fighter jets Brazil is set to buy, let me set the record straight on that. Make no mistake; it's a huge purchase, one of the largest Brazilian military purchases in decades.  The three final candidates battling it out for the contract are Boeing from the U.S., Saab Gripen from Sweden, and Dassault Aviation from France. 

On September 7 Lula annouced he had decided on going with the French made jet, the Rafale, and made the announcement while French President Nicolas Sarkozy was in Brasilia. It immediately caused a stir. The following day the headline in one Sao Paulo newspaper read: "Lula Opts for the French Jet Ending an International Dispute."

International media also correctly reported what Lula said. But within 48 hours of the annoucement, the Brazilian Defense Minister came out and basically said, "Uh, well, the deal isn't actually signed yet." It appears Lula took the liberty of speaking out before the deal was actually done. (Brazilian officials say it was the press who jumped the gun, and that Lula meant the talks with the French were only in advanced stages).

Either way, maybe it was his strategy all along. Because soon after it was confirmed the deal was not yet signed with the French, Boeing said they would be willing to transfer their jet technology to Brazil, a major reversal after Boeing had consistently refused this request from the Brazilians previously. And the Saab Gripen group from Sweden said they would be lowering the price on their jets, making it an unbeatable deal for the Brazilians. Maybe by making the premature annoucement, Brazil will end up with a better deal in the end. I will keep you posted. 

Does Brazil need 36 new fighter jets? And is there an arms race happening in Latin America? The short answers are yes to number one, and no to number two. But I will deal with that in more detail in another post.