Lula's Iranian gamble

Lula's Iranian gamble

Whether or not the Iranian uranium swap deal just bartered by Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (with Turkey's co-operation) lays the grandwork for an ultimate solution to the conflict, it is worth noting those who were laughing at President Lula last week are not laughing anymore.

The US state department and others in the G8 and in Brazil, had been ridiculing President Lula for even attempting to mediate in the conflict.

"He's letting Brazil's emerging power status get to his head" and "He thinks he's playing in the majdor leagues!", a top level US state department official recently mocked.

In Brasilia, respected analysts such as Andre Cesar told me that he thought Lula's "inflated ego" was the driving force for his involvement in messy issues like Iran and Palestine, adding that he risked making a fool of himself.

"What makes Lula think that he can succeed where the United States, Russia and France failed?" critics asked.

Without a doubt President Lula made a high risk bet when he decided to to mediate in the Iran nuclear affair.

So riskly a bet in fact, that last week Russia's president, trying to be generous, politely gave his Brazilian counterpart only a 30 per cent chance of getting a result.

At stake was not only Lula's personal reputation (Time magazine recently named him the world's most influential poltician), but Brazil's long held aspiration to obtain a permanent seat on the Security Council.

Success in mediating with Iran and showing the world that talking face-to-face works better than sanction threats, would likely boost support for Brazil's candidacy, while failure would probably have the inverse affect, argued one of Lula's closest foreign policy advisors who asked not to be named.

Lula only has seven months left in office. If he can be credited with having extracted at least a goodwill gesture from Tehran, he will be the one having the last laugh.