Race to replace Lula: Tied

Race to replace Lula: Tied

A new poll was released Sunday in Brazil that shows the race to see who will replace Lula as Brazil’s next president is as close as ever.

The two front runners - Jose Serra, the Sao Paulo governor; and Dilma Rousseff, Lula’s chief of staff - are exactly tied at 37% of the vote, according to the poll conducted by Ibope on behalf of O Estado de S. Paulo newspaper and Rede Globo. Marina Silva, the Green Party candidate (and the only other serious contender), is polling at 9%.

Back in August of '09 I blogged about how a Silva presidential run would shake things up. 

If no candidate gains 50+1 in the first round of voting on October 3, it goes to a runoff on October 31. In that case, according to the new poll, both candidates are locked at exactly at 42% of the vote.

You simply cannot get any closer.

Back in February of this year I blogged about how Rousseff was steadily rising in the polls while Serra was flat-lining.

The new poll indicates that trend is continuing. Rousseff has gone from polling at 4% (in February 2008) to where she is now. In 2008 most people simply didn’t know Rousseff; now they do, and they apparently like what they see.

It helps that Rousseff is running as Lula’s candidate: The new poll indicates Lula’s approval ratings inside Brazil remain at an astronomical 86%. You might argue that Rousseff should be way ahead given her affiliation to Lula.

The new poll also confirms that Rousseff is dominating in the northeast of Brazil (47% compared to Serra’s 27%) - which is no surprise as this is Lula’s "home turf".

Serra is dominating in the more conservative far south of Brazil (48% compared to Rousseff’s 26%) - Lula’s popularity ratings are weakest in the south (but still well above 50%), hence Rousseff’s struggles in this area.

While it’s pretty clear who the top three candidates are, it won’t be official until next weekend when Rousseff's Workers Party and Serra's PSDB party hold their political conventions to make it all official.

Right now in Brazil, we are still in "pre-campaign" mode, but not for much longer.

Right after her convention, Rousseff is headed off for Europe for a week - without Lula this time - to sort of proclaim herself to the world as Lula’s chosen successor. (She is still mostly unknown outside of Brazil, as Lula simply sucks up all the oxygen in the Workers Party).

Meanwhile, back in Brazil, Serra’s camp is saying June will be the month they will assert themselves back as the clear front runner.

Marina Silva, for her part, continues to pound away on the social justice themes, trying to lure away voters who simply aren’t convinced on the authenticity of either of the two front runners.

But here is a little secret for you: In Brazil none of this really matters until July 11.

That is when the World Cup ends. Until then, it will be hard (dare I say, impossible) for the any of the candidates to get the undivided attention of the voters in Brazil.

After July 11, the game of football is over, but the political game in Brazil is “Game On!”