Afghan elections: What's next (part 1)

Afghan elections: What's next (part 1)

It was a sweltering summer day when the people of Afghanistan voted. Now I am on a plane heading back to Kabul to finally hear the outcome of that poll, this time with an overcoat stored in the plane's overhead locker.

Two months of counting, recounting and investigation may well now lead to a second round contest, which the UN hopes could take place as early as the first week of November.

The voting on August 20th was marred by Taliban attacks, widespread fraud, poor organisation in parts of the country, and a low turnout.

Many fear a second round could be even more problematic. Winter has already arrived in some of the remote mountainous areas of the country, making it difficult for some voters to travel to the polling stations. There is much less time for the much-criticised Independent Election Commission to prepare this time.

International observers may be less keen to volunteer to come to Afghanistan, given the controversy surrounding the August voting. They know most of the polling stations in the more dangerous parts of south and east of the country will again be off-limits to them. As much of the alleged fraud took place in these areas, it looks likely the IEC may offer a reduced number of polling stations this time.
 
The Taliban will again almost certainly threaten voters, and carry out attacks on election day. Many Afghans may not take the risk of participating again - some say they have lost faith in the whole process.

The IEC have fired over 200 district-level officials for misconduct or incompetence. But this does not rule out the possibility of widespread fraud a second time.

A second round might only produce more fraud, further violence, increased tension in the capital, and a lower turnout. One high-level UN official told me fresh voting looks very likely, but it "would not be pretty."

Even some of Karzai’s staunchest supporters now believe that his share will be reduced to below the 50 per cent threshold. However, a second round is not the only option. In the second part of this post, I will look at all the other possibilities.

For more, watch this report by my colleague, Jonah Hull: