What's next in Afghanistan

What's next in Afghanistan

Hamid Karzai, the incumbent president, was declared the winner of the Afghan elections by default. He's now vowed to form an "inclusive" government, saying it will represent all his countrymen.

Here’s my take on what’s next on Afghanistan's political horizon:

1. Formation of new government and cabinet

Karzai is being urged by the international community to come up with an “inclusive” government, possibly with some of Dr Abdullah’s supporters in key cabinet posts. Karzai will face other pressures too.

Sources tell Al Jazeera that the President has already promised cabinet jobs, other key positions, and possibly even the creation of new provinces to reward those who backed him in August’s vote. Diplomats from western countries were already concerned about the selection of Karzai’s Vice President, Mohammed Qasim Fahim. They are now worried about the other figures that he will promote to the top table.

2. Inauguration

This is a ceremonial event, held inside the Presidential Palace and it is probably still weeks away.

3. Election Complaints Commission

The ECC is currently concentrating on investigations concerning the Provincial council poll, which took place on the same day as the Presidential poll in August.

However, after its rulings on fraud, it is possible it could still recommend prosecutions of those involved in vote rigging in the Presidential election on August 20th.

4. Obama’s troop decision

After long deliberations, the US President is expected to announce, some time in the next month, whether he will follow General McCrystal’s recommendations, and send more troops to Afghanistan. We are told no announcement is expected before Obama goes on an Asian tour on November 11th. There must be a chance that the President could add a surprise Afghan leg to his trip. President Obama has not visited Kabul since taking office nearly eleven month ago.

5. Taliban talks

On the campaign trail President Karzai promised to start talking to the Taliban, and possibly to bring them into the government. We will be watching closely.

6. Bagram prison

The controversial prison inside the massive air base north of Kabul has become “another Guantanamo”, according to Human rights activists. Will Karzai keep another of his election promises? Late in the campaign, in a large tent, filled with tribal leaders in Gardez, I heard the President declare in a speech, “ No longer will Afghans be held in foreign prisons, on Afghan soil.”

7. International Conference

The United Nations talked some months ago about holding an international conference about Afghanistan, once the election was over. It was to take place at foreign minister level. After major conferences over the last eight years in places like Bonn, Paris, Tokyo and The Hague, the idea was to hold this gathering in Kabul itself. Is it an idea that will now be revived?