Nervous anticipation

Nervous anticipation

There is a nervous anticipation in the air in Manila – almost a sombre silence. Many fear it could just be a deceptive calm before a storm. 

The Philippines is preparing to go to the polls this Monday, using a new automated system for the first time, and if local surveys are anything to go by, most here are eager to see a change in the nation’s leadership.
 
President Gloria Arroyo has been in power far too long, they say, and many have taken to comparing her to the deposed dictator Ferdinand Marcos. She has been in office for nearly a decade, almost half the time that he was. 

Since the People Power revolt in 1986 that toppled the Marcos regime, the constitution was changed to allow an elected President to only sit for a single six-year term; the clause was put in place to prevent any abuses of power. 

Allegations of rigging

But as history - or fate - would have it, Vice-President Gloria Arroyo assumed the presidency two years into the term of her predecessor, Joseph Estrada.  A popularly elected movie-star, Estrada was removed from office by a middle-class uprising over allegations of corruption. 

Arroyo finished Estrada’s term, and then ran for the Presidency on her own afterwards. There was no clause in the constitution to prevent that.  There were widespread allegations that she cheated in those elections.  Various investigations were conducted, but they were inconclusive. The allegations persist, and the country chugged along under her leadership.   

Despite some economic achievements her administration says it has accomplished, Arroyo has become the most unpopular leader the Philippines has had.

The gap between the rich and the poor has widened, human rights violations are still being committed with astounding impunity, and corruption is rampant. 

The once great democratic hope of Asia has been referred to now as everything from a "damaged culture", a "stagnant state", to a "devastating failure" of potential. 

Journalist and analyst Marites Vitug once said to Al Jazeera that Filipinos are a patient people. That they often choose to look the other way, or forget any wrong-doing because it is “easier” than actually dealing with any kind of ugliness that might be present in society.

Automation fears

But the same kind of energy is in the air now as was present in the 1980s before the overwhelming clamour for change that led to that first People Power movement.  And everyone here is once again deeply invested in the outcome of these polls.

There are fears the automation will fail and President Arroyo will find a way to stay in power, or that she has made alliances with certain presidential contenders, and will somehow still play a vital role in the nation’s future. 

Rumours abound that should a failure of elections occur, the military will take over, or worse, that candidates not declared victors will take matters into their own hands instead of peacefully accepting defeat.  On top of that, people are convinced there will be fraud and violence as in previous polls and that any kind of sound outcome might prove impossible. Widespread mistrust has its grip on the population.  

The Philippines this evening is a heady mix of tension, excitement, fear and hope -  no one really sure what kind of nation they will wake up to when the polls close tomorrow.