Pakistan government to fall?

Pakistan government to fall?

The rumour mill is in overdrive. Yousef Raza Gilani, the Pakistan prime minister, risks defying a court order, and the supreme court is flexing its muscles. It's high noon in Pakistan and the showdown, due in the supreme court on October 13, is putting immense pressure on the government.
 
Once again, the government is in crisis. This time it's over a case the government claims has technically been closed. It involves alleged money laundering through Switzerland by Asif Ali Zardari, the country's president, before he became president.
 
Supporters of the government say he has presidential immunity and therefore he is free from prosecution. Not so, says the supreme court, as the allegation's date from before his time as leader.
 
The supreme court wants the Pakistani PM to write a letter to the Swiss authorities demanding that they reopen the case. So far the PM has not written the letter. If he fails to adhere to the supreme court's demand, many experts say he will be held in contempt. If he is, so one argument goes, then his government falls.

Protracted legal battle
 
Another scenario involves a new case taking a look at when immunity for the president begins and ends. Both scenarios mean - you guessed it - a protracted legal and political battle.
 
The government is teetering on the precipice. It all hinges on a signature. Pakistan's law ministry, in direct opposition to the supreme court, doesn't want that letter written and has drafted an order to that effect. If the PM signs that order, then he could be accused of contempt of court.
 
If the government's current allies stay with it, then all may be well - and the government could ride out the contempt order. It will be rough, but could happen, and will mean months, maybe years, in court.
 
But if Karachi's main political party, Muttahida Qaumi Movement, decides to bail, then the government could survive, but will be weakened. If one of the biggest religious parties also decides to bail, then that's a real problem.
 
The leader of the biggest opposition party, Nawaz Sharif of the PML (N), faces a tough choice. According to many analysts, whatever happens on October 13th he will be under pressure from his own party members and the public to call for a vote of no confidence in the government. If he calls for it and gets it, that means early elections.
 
On the surface this could prove advantageous to Sharif, as in any election Sharif will most likely emerge a winner. But this is Pakistan. Even he knows that in order for this fledgling democracy to move forward, the current government needs to survive a full term. If not, then the likelihood of a Sharif government completing a full term is, well, difficult.
 
The country saw this in the nineties. Two main parties - the Pakistani People's party led by Zardari's deceased wife Benazir Bhutto, and Sharif's PML (N) - flip flopped power four times as each accused the other of sins against the Pakistani people. Eventually after a high stakes game of chicken over the skies of Pakistan, when Sharif refused to allow the then military chief Pervez Musharraf's plane to land, the military took over.

Floundering government
 
For the next eight years Pakistan was under military rule with Musharraf as president. Very few want a return to that state. But this government is floundering and by many accounts keeps making mistakes.

The handling of the flood crisis, when the Pakistani president flew off to Europe yet his country was grappling with the biggest natural disaster in it's history, angered many Pakistanis.

While Zardari has been dogged by corruption charges, prime minister Gilani is seen as being an ineffective leader, and his cabinet has been battered by charges of cronyism amongst many other allegations.
 
This latest showdown is being seen as the straw that could break the camel's back.
 
Pakistanis are wondering whether a change in government is in the offing. The prime minister in contempt of court is controversial. If that happens then all bets are off. However, it's likely that some sort of protracted legal battle will take place - the government battling the supreme court. That means that this government will be busy in court and not implementing its policies.

Ifitikhar Muhammed Chaudhry, the chief justice, has already seen the back of one of Pakistani leaders, the military dictator Pervez Musharraff. His supporters say he has the law on his side.

The way out
 
There is a way out for the government. If it effectively stamps out corruption, it could survive and that may well be enough for the supreme court. But will it be enough for the opposition? Well that's another matter.
 
There is, however, another twist in the tale. According to the Swiss authorities quoted by Pakistani media, the case against Zardari cannot be reopened.
 
Swiss attorney general Daniel Zappelli said in April that since Zardari enjoys immunity under international law, even if the letter was received through official channels, the Swiss government could not act. It begs the question: Why not just send the letter if that's the case?

One theory suggest the government is defiant as it does not want the supreme court to become the arbiter of who leads the country. Others suggest that this government is simply bent on committing political suicide.

Pakistan is gripped. It seems everyone has a theory about what will happen next. No one, though, knows for sure.