Well, I wouldn't fly in it!

Well, I wouldn't fly in it!

That is what one leading aerospace expert said to me at his office in old town Alexandria in Virginia.

He was speaking as the U.S. space agency NASA launched a prototype rocket designed to replace the aging Shuttle fleet and one day to carry men back to the Moon.

The Ares 1-X blasted off from Cape Canaveral in the southern U.S. state of Florida for a journey that lasted just two minutes before it came down in the Atlantic Ocean.

The flight may have been a short one but there was a lot riding on Ares 1-X including nothing less than the future of NASA itself.

 
Wednesday’s lift-off was delayed for 24 hours after storm clouds rolled over the launch pad and many see bad weather in Florida as a metaphor for U.S. space ambitions and NASA’s future.

Aerospace analyst Charles Vick from GlobalSecurity.org thinks Ares 1-X is too slender, could easily break apart and is already out of date technology:

“This launch vehicle is not right.  It’s not right for a manned lunar effort.  It doesn’t give us the capability to carry the spacecraft we really wanted. It doesn’t have the payload capacity to replace the Space Shuttle.”

President Obama has on his desk a report into manned space flight by the high level Augustine Panel that warns NASA’s budget for going back to the Moon is too small plus there’s little public appetite for it – a case of been there done that!

The Augustine Report recommends NASA takes some baby steps in part to rekindle the enthusiasm of the American people including a circumnavigation of the moon, a trip to a distant telescope, a landing on one of the moons of Mars and finally a manned spacecraft flight landing on Mars itself.

If Obama does abandon the Moon, he’s still got to find a replacement for the Shuttle fleet - not just to give NASA something to focus on but also to boost ailing U.S. manufacturers who could use the work right now AND to service the International Space Station, a joint venture with Europe, Russia and Japan that could last at least another ten years.

In these tough economic times, analysts think there's a good chance Obama may turn to aerospace firms who normally put up satellites for a living for help in financing future manned space flight but only with NASA's guidance.

“They’ve got to earn their stripes as a part of an industry that is established to bring those up to speed so that they truly can provide those services because they do not have the demonstrated experience at this point.”

As Ares 1X takes off, it’s far from clear whether NASA’s future will take off too.

Public or private, the Moon or Mars, and what astronauts do when they get there - all questions that for NASA, involve much more than mere rocket science.