George Papaconstantinou

By Barnaby Phillips in Europe on May 3rd, 2010
Photo by AFP

The Greek headlines make sorry reading this morning, as the grim reality of a new age of austerity sinks in.

There's little sense that the country has won a respite through the enormous bailout agreed by European governments, only a grim assessment of what impact the latest round of cuts will have on ordinary Greeks.

"The Big Sacrifice" says Ta Nea, the Elethrotypia believes it's going to be "Four Years Without A Breath”, whilst Ethnos says the pain will last a little longer: "Suffocation For the Next Five Years."

For the Socialist PASOK government, this is galling.

By Barnaby Phillips in Europe on December 30th, 2009
Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou / Photo by AFP

2010 is fast upon us. Here are some brief thoughts, and even a few predictions, on the critical issues for the year ahead in some of the countries I follow closely in southern and eastern Europe.

1) Cyprus

Talks between Greek and Turkish Cypriots on the reunification of the island are moving slowly, and there’s growing concern that a window of opportunity is closing. The Turkish Cypriot leader, Mehmet Ali Talat, may lose elections in April to a more nationalist opponent. In which case, it will be even harder to stitch together a deal.

You might wonder why Cyprus matters. I can think of two reasons. Firstly, because progress towards reunification in Cyprus is intricately linked to the situation in Turkey. European leaders want to see if Turkey is prepared to encourage the Turkish Cypriots to reach an agreement. If a deal can be done, a significant obstacle to Turkey’s accession to the EU will have been removed.

By Barnaby Phillips in Europe on December 1st, 2009
Photo from EPA

The Dubai debt default  may create a larger crisis of confidence in heavily indebted economies. That's certainly the fear in European countries like Ireland and Latvia, but perhaps above all, here in Greece.

The Greek stock market tumbled last week, as investors took fright. Public finances are a mess; the government has just announced that the budget deficit is projected to be 12.7 per cent of GDP, which is more than double the previous estimate, and four times more than the theoretical limit set by the European Union. 

The Guardian today asks if Greece is the new Iceland. 

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