Marc Ravalomanana

Last roll of the dice?

The last roll of the dice? That's the assessment by one security expert of Thursday's announcement by Madagascar's deposed president Marc Ravalomanana that he plans to leave exile in South Africa and return home on Saturday.

Thomas Wilson, senior Africa analyst at Control Risks, told the Reuters news agency it was the last move of a desperate man. Wilson predicts the plane won't even take off.

Ravalomanana is sure it will, demonstrating his certainty by waving a clutch of commercial airline tickets.

"I wish to inform all who are watching and listening to me today, both in South Africa and Madagascar and the rest of the world, I will return home on the day after tomorrow, on Saturday, February 19th," he told reporters gathered for the big moment in a plush Johannesburg office park.

 "I will be returning to our beloved country.