Milorad Dodik

By Barnaby Phillips in Europe on December 30th, 2009
Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou / Photo by AFP

2010 is fast upon us. Here are some brief thoughts, and even a few predictions, on the critical issues for the year ahead in some of the countries I follow closely in southern and eastern Europe.

1) Cyprus

Talks between Greek and Turkish Cypriots on the reunification of the island are moving slowly, and there’s growing concern that a window of opportunity is closing. The Turkish Cypriot leader, Mehmet Ali Talat, may lose elections in April to a more nationalist opponent. In which case, it will be even harder to stitch together a deal.

You might wonder why Cyprus matters. I can think of two reasons. Firstly, because progress towards reunification in Cyprus is intricately linked to the situation in Turkey. European leaders want to see if Turkey is prepared to encourage the Turkish Cypriots to reach an agreement. If a deal can be done, a significant obstacle to Turkey’s accession to the EU will have been removed.

By Barnaby Phillips in Europe on October 21st, 2009
Radovan Karadzic, photo by Getty Images

I'm travelling to Bosnia this week. I'll be there to cover reaction to the beginning of the trial of the Bosnian Serb war time leader, Radovan Karadzic. The trial is taking place at the Hague, and Mr Karadzic is charged with crimes against humanity.  We'll be hearing a lot more about the horrific events of the early 90's in the coming months.

But whilst in Sarajevo, I'll also be keeping an ear out for opinions on the current situation in Bosnia.

The country is in a political crisis, although until now, the rest of the world has been paying little attention. Co-operation between the leaders of ethnic Serbs on one side, and Bosniak Muslims and Croats on the other, has broken down. This week EU and American mediators are in Sarajevo, trying to patch together a deal.