The nuclear future

The nuclear future

From his comfortable office in the sprawling UN complex Vienna, Mohammed ElBaradei runs the world’s nuclear watchdog. 

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is never far from the headlines, whether it’s dealing with North Korea’s no so  secret tests, Iran’s ongoing nuclear programme or the Americans and the Russians pledging to cut their nuclear arms weapons.

The Egyptian Director General is walking away.  After 12 years in charge, he’ll step down in November leaving someone else to fight the battles.

His office is large but uncluttered.  On his desk a number of books, some press cuttings but most obviously, pictures of his family he proudly describes as ‘citizens of the world’.

He arrives early,  We have an hour, but there’s lots to talk about, most obviously what the events in Iran over the past week mean to the country’s nuclear ambitions.

He believes that the government in Tehran wants the technology for a nuclear weapon but that doesn’t mean they’re going to build one.  “They are six or seven years away from that, so we’re not going to wake up and find a nuclear armed Iran”.  He knows the Israelis are running out of patience with talks about talks but animatedly warns against military action.  “The Israelis might decide to bomb the facilties in Iran, this would be the wrong thing to do.  President Perez has himself said you can’t bomb knowledge.  All you you do would be to delay Iranks technology programme a couple of years. But I can assure you that if they have no intentipon to develop nuclear weapons, they will go into a crash course to develop nuclear weapons.  They bombed Iran in the 1980s and Saddam launched a clandestine nuclear operation.  Miliary action is not the answer”.

Iraq is the one thing that Dr El Baradei struggles with each morning when he looks in the mirror, the war and all it’s consequences.  But the thing keeping him awake at night is nuclear terrorism.  He fears an “extremist” group getting hold of some radioactive material that could be used in a dirty bomb.  “We have to make sure all radioactive material is in good hands, applying the gold standard to the physical protection of these materials because you have these extremeist groups don’t have deterrence as part of their ideologies.  If they have it, they’ll use it.  It would be easy to get to radioactive sources.  We have to have full funding to do a credible job in stopping this.  It is the top priority in the world  We need to be a watchdog with bite”.

For many the biggest nuclear threat remains North Korea, which has carried out two recent tests.  It was a problem when ElBaradei took charge of the IAEA and now 12 years later, it remains unresolved.  “We have learned a lot of lessons from dealing with North Korea.  Every time talks broke down with North Korea, there was a problem.  So the lesson must be to keep talking and keep them engaged.  They want assurances about their security, humanitarian assistance and so we need to talk”.  He sees a role for his agency at the neogtiating table.  “We’ll be involved in verification, so we should be there”.

The recent surge of the Taliban caused a few moments worry in Vienna.  But the IAEA believes the country’s nuclear arsenal is safe and protected and won’t fall into “the wrong hands”.

Throughout our conversation, he often refers to the process of reducing the number of nuclear weapons.  He still believes complete disarmament is achievable: “most ideas like this face great cynacism, but you have to start somewhere”.  He believes Barak Obama has energised international diplomacy “He knows the value of negotiation” and ithat with the Russians genuinely wants to cut the number of warhead.  “It improves their moral position to ask others not to weaponise”.

The Egyptian has received many honours in his career but still regarded the 2005 Nobel Peace prize for him and crucially his organisation as his crowning achievment: “I am merely a conductor here, pulling it all together”.  He stands down in November.  He may find may be a few more tunes to play before his final performance.