Bosnia: Worrying times

Bosnia: Worrying times

I'm travelling to Bosnia this week. I'll be there to cover reaction to the beginning of the trial of the Bosnian Serb war time leader, Radovan Karadzic. The trial is taking place at the Hague, and Mr Karadzic is charged with crimes against humanity.  We'll be hearing a lot more about the horrific events of the early 90's in the coming months.

But whilst in Sarajevo, I'll also be keeping an ear out for opinions on the current situation in Bosnia.

The country is in a political crisis, although until now, the rest of the world has been paying little attention. Co-operation between the leaders of ethnic Serbs on one side, and Bosniak Muslims and Croats on the other, has broken down. This week EU and American mediators are in Sarajevo, trying to patch together a deal.

They want constitutional changes that will do away with the unwieldy, complex structures laid out in the 1995 Dayton peace accords, which ended the war. They are proposing a more centralised state, in return for which Bosnia will be offered a path to eventual EU and NATO membership.

None of Bosnia's leading politicians are delighted with what's on offer, but it's  the Bosnian Serb Prime Minister, Milorad Dodik, who has been most dismissive. He's quoted by local media as calling the proposals "anti-Dayton, politically incorrect and unacceptable as a basis for talks". 

I've met Mr Dodik. He is a large man with a short temper.  Western diplomats in Sarajevo spend a lot of time worrying about his intentions.  Does he really want to break this country up, or is he bluffing?

That brings me back to Mr Karadzic. Today's political crisis, and the war of the 90's, are linked.  A majority of Serbs, and to a certain extent Croats, have always been reluctant to accept that Bosnia is a viable country that they truly belong in.  They identify more with their motherlands; Serbia and Croatia.  

In the early 90's Mr Karadzic and others, fought a vicious war in defence of their respective ethnic groups.  Now, the Serbs say they will accept the loose federation that they signed up to at Dayton, but nothing more.  All of which could make for more troubling times ahead in Bosnia.