Obsessed by numbers

Obsessed by numbers

Figures dominate the discussions here in Barcelona. In every corridor, every meeting hall, it’s all about the numbers.

So here are a few important ones:

Africa wants advanced economies to cut carbon emissions by 40 percent by 2020. The European Union says it’ll cut by 20 percent but will go up to 30 percent if other countries pile on. Japan says it’ll cut 25 percent but hasn’t given any details of the conditions involved.

China is the number 1 polluter, America is number 2. The US Congress thinks emissions should be cut by 17 percent by 2020 and by 83 percent by 2050. The Senate thinks 20 percent by 2020 is more realistic but both set 2005 as the year they take their baseline figure rather than 1990. That of course means the cuts will not be as deep.

The EU believes helping poorer countries cut carbon emissions and deal with global warming will cost $150,000,000,000 a year until 2020. It’s ready to pick up the tab for half of that – if other countries pay their ‘fair share’,

It’s thought energy demand will rise by 55 percent by 2030.

In Barcelona they are trying to work through a document which is more than 200 pages long. The plan was that they’d have a document that the leaders of 192 countries could sign when they meet in Copenhagen in 30 days. That is now not going to happen. The best hope is for a framework document which will be filled in at some point in the future.

And here’s the most telling statistic. This needs global action. No country can do it on its own. It needs the world acting as one.