South-Eastern Europe: a crystal ball for 2010

South-Eastern Europe: a crystal ball for 2010

2010 is fast upon us. Here are some brief thoughts, and even a few predictions, on the critical issues for the year ahead in some of the countries I follow closely in southern and eastern Europe.

1) Cyprus

Talks between Greek and Turkish Cypriots on the reunification of the island are moving slowly, and there’s growing concern that a window of opportunity is closing. The Turkish Cypriot leader, Mehmet Ali Talat, may lose elections in April to a more nationalist opponent. In which case, it will be even harder to stitch together a deal.

You might wonder why Cyprus matters. I can think of two reasons. Firstly, because progress towards reunification in Cyprus is intricately linked to the situation in Turkey. European leaders want to see if Turkey is prepared to encourage the Turkish Cypriots to reach an agreement. If a deal can be done, a significant obstacle to Turkey’s accession to the EU will have been removed.

And, secondly, Cyprus has a symbolic importance. The reunification of the island ought to be possible, if only leaders on both sides pushed hard enough. A successful deal on Cyprus could provide inspiration to negotiators involved in other apparently intractable disputes in the nearby Middle East. But, as one world-weary diplomat said to me, "when it comes to the Cyprus problem, there are two kinds of observers; the cynics, and those who haven't been here long enough to become cynical".

2) Bosnia

Bosnia is in a mess, and faces a potentially dangerous year. The Bosnian Serb leader, Milorad Dodik, has stopped co-operating with international representatives in the country, and is threatening to hold a referendum that would accelerate the growing detachment of his Republika Srpska from the rest of the country.

National elections in October might harden the divisions between Muslim Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats. And the response to all this, from the Europeans and the Americans, has, so far, been poorly co-ordinated and half-hearted.

3) Greece

Greece is in a financial crisis, and the billion euro question is whether the Socialist government has the political will to push through painful reforms in the face of what is bound to be determined opposition from trade unions and the powerful public sector. Not to mention all sorts of corrupt interests who profit from the status quo.

I've just had an interview with the man in the hot seat, the Finance Minister, George Papaconstantinou. He's persuasive and calm. He says that his government means business, and that Greece will not lapse into bad old habits. "We were elected on a mandate of change", he insists. And he dismisses fears that the country will default on its debt in 2010.

We'll have to see whether Mr Papaconstantinou is right. But I can, confidently, make one prediction; there will be many strikes in the coming months, and many demonstrations on the streets of Athens.

4) Serbia

Serbia will remain under pressure to produce the last two remaining fugitives wanted by the UN War Crimes Tribunal in The Hague, especially Ratko Mladic. But President Boris Tadic now feels that his country is well set on the path towards EU accession.

There is always the Kosovo problem. Serbia will never recognise Kosovan independence, although most EU countries have. The legality of Kosovo's independence is now before another UN court in the Hague, the International Court of Justice.

It's hard to see what practical difference an eventual ruling from the ICJ will make to the facts on the ground, as it is difficult to imagine how Kosovo will ever be ruled by Serbia again. In the meantime, Kosovo itself will remain divided, with ethnic Serbs in the north refusing to co-operate with the mainly ethnic Albanian government in Pristina. But Kosovo will remain essentially peaceful. There is, thankfully, no desire for a return to conflict there.

So there are just a few thoughts about this region. Finally, I wish all readers of the Al Jazeera Blogs the very best for 2010.