Brown's big battle

Brown's big battle

In a business where we live on the unexpected, there is one thing we can guarantee in 2010 - there will a general election in the United Kingdom.

The actual date is in the gift of the British PM, Gordon Brown, but constitutionally it must be held by June 3rd at the latest.

There are some who believe the most likely date for the poll is May, but there is a growing number that think March is now a real possibility. The thinking behind that is all based on the global financial crisis.

Britian is expected to come out of recession early in 2010. Good financial figures will give the Government a bounce in the opinion polls and rather than risk a sudden downturn, the ruling Labour party will go to the polls seeking a new five year mandate.

The early poll also means that the Government can avoid presenting a budget to the House of Common sometime in March, particularly as most financial experts say that serious cuts in public spending will be needed to try to get Britain's debt under control. No one wins elections after making huge cuts or raising taxes.

The latest opinion polls put the opposition Conservative Party 10 points ahead. If that was translated into votes, not only would it return them to power for the first time in 13 years, it would give them a workable parliamentary majority.

Gordon Brown will make the economy the key plank of any campaign. He will point to the measures he's taken to battle the global financial crisis and brand the opposition as untried, untested and unsure. The Conservatives will point to the fact that before he became PM, Gordon Brown was the finance minister who heralded the end of "boom and bust".

There are many important issues that should be discussed in the UK's 2010 General election campaign but in the end, it will all come down to one issue. And that will be the economy.