Quiet in the Gulf amid Iran-US storm

Quiet in the Gulf amid Iran-US storm

They say at the eye of the storm, there is calm. So it is with the sabre-rattling over Iran’s nuclear programme. As a diplomatic and political typhoon blows towards Tehran from Western countries, in the Gulf, all is still.

This silence seems odd. After all, Arab countries know that they will pay a heavy price if military action is taken against Iran - the most significant armed power in the region.

So what’s behind this reticence to join the debate?

Many Arab countries have a deeply ambivalent view of the impasse. They see Iran as something of a double-edged sword; while they support its patronage of resistance groups across the region, they are uncomfortable with the power that this brings.

Likewise, they understand Tehran’s resentment at being spoken down to by the West over its drive to produce enriched nuclear material, but they are not sure they want to see a nuclear-armed, increasingly assertive Iran across the water.

And so, unable to formulate a common position on the standoff playing out in their backyard they don’t say anything.

“The Arabs are sleeping,” says, Abdullah Shayji, professor of international relations at the Kuwait University.

 The Iranian nuclear programme does not concern us as long as it is peaceful. What concerns us is the growth of the Iranian role in the region ... We are more concerned than anyone about what might happen with the US and Iran, but we are not consulted.

Mustafa Ellabbad, director of the Al Sharq Centre for Regional and Strategic Studies (SCRSS), based in Cairo, also wants to see Arab states playing a more visible role in defusing the tensions between Iran and West:

The main objectives behind Iran’s policies are their national interests. They have always had regional ambitions, this is their historical destiny. I welcome the role of Turkey in balancing the powers, but this is not enough. The Arabs have to play a role.

He says the price of inaction could be high.

Iran have imposed themselves as a major power in the region. It is important to know how the Arabs will deal with this. Arabs have to open a dialogue with Iran. It is better to negotiate with them. If we don’t, we will be marginalised. If there is a strike or attack, Arab countries will be the losers.

Instead, the silence continues and Arab states watch as the dispute unfolds around them, hoping that the storm that is brewing on the horizon won’t leave an all too familiar trail of destruction in its wake.