Will they or won't they: The Palestinian signing game

Will they or won't they: The Palestinian signing game

In the past 24 hours, I've travelled from Gaza to Nablus to Ramallah to Jerusalem and back to Gaza. The question on every Palestinian's mind is the same: will rival Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas sign a national reconciliation agreement at the end of October.  

For three years, Hamas and Fatah have fought deadly battles and exchanged sharp accusations. Attempts at national unity governments and power sharing agreements have all failed. For more than a year, Egypt has played a central role in trying to bring the two sides together in one final effort at bringing the Palestinian political house in order.

At the end of September, all indicators suggested that indeed Hamas and Fatah had finally been able to reach an agreement. Many Palestinians believed it was too good to be true. A light at the end of the tunnel could finally been seen, but it didn't last long...

Then came the Goldstone controversy and a decision by the Palestinian Authority, led by President Mahmoud Abbas, to defer a vote on endorsing the Goldstone Commission report at the UN Human Rights Council. 

Palestinians across the political divide were outraged at their president. At the time, Palestinians in Gaza were seen trampling images of their president, even burning effigies, a rarity even among the bitterly divided and politically charged followers of Hamas and Fatah. 

For its part, Hamas did not try to quell the public anger. Instead, they reflected it and to some extent fed it by denouncing the president and threatening to delay signing the national reconciliation agreement. Suddenly every Palestinian I was speaking to said "see, we told you so, there is no way there will be national unity". 

The Egyptians, under pressure to show their relevance in Palestinian politics and maintain their place as the regions powerbroker - despite pushes by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and even Qatar, who've all intervened in internal Palestinian politics - realized their hard work was once again unravelling.

As Hamas began to sound skeptical about national reconciliation, Egypt quickly announced that indeed both sides had reached an agreement and that Hamas and Fatah had been invited to sign the National Reconciliation Pact on October 25-26 in front other countries and parties. 

This put Hamas and Fatah in an awkward position. Neither side could come out and declare it is pulling out of national unity talks out of fear they would be blamed for their collapse once again, especially now that the Egyptians had publicly announced to the world that Hamas and Fatah had accepted an agreement and all that remained was to sign it.

Hamas still refused to commit to the date or to the agreement publicly. In fact, they have been holding internal deliberations about whether to delay or postpone the signing ceremony, though several senior Hamas officials have told me that pulling out entirely from the talks is not likely.

Fatah is keen to go to national reconciliation. Their embattled leader and Palestinian president is widely seen as in dire need of achieving some good news. A national reconciliation pact could be the one measure that can make every one take their eyes off the Goldstone controversy for a short bit and shift the attention to a more positive breakthrough that would have an immediate impact on the people. 

But Hamas has felt empowered by the PA diplomatic blunder that they described as treason. Hamas feels they may not need to proceed with national reconciliation at this time. The Egyptians, feeling some internal Hamas rumblings, decided to put a very big incentive in front of them. Reports claim that Egypt has now offtered to open the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt immediately after a National Reconciliation Pact is signed. This would begin to alleviate one of the most harmful affects of the siege on the people of Gaza, who for more than three years have not been allowed to leave the territory to pursue education, healthcare, business opportunities, family occasions or any kind of normalcy in their lives. If the Egyptians open Rafah, it would be seen as a major achievement for the Hamas-controlled government in Gaza, which has seen its popularity dip over the years.

But now the questions remain: Is the incentive in front of both parties big enough and strong enough to make them overlook their fundamental differences for the sake of national unity, while providing them an exit from their own internal dilemmas? And what every Palestinian wants to know: Will they sign or not?